Russia to take back seat at G8

by Natasha Doff at 17/05/2012 22: 05

While the official agenda at this weekend’s Group of Eight summit in the United States will focus on the increasingly volatile debt crisis in the euro zone, off-mic gossip between leaders will likely center around President Vladimir Putin and his decision not to attend.

Putin, who was inaugurated for a new six-year term in office last week, is the only leader of the G8 industrial economies who will not be present at the two-day summit at President Barack Obama’s Camp David retreat.

In a breach of G8 protocol that many regarded as a snub against the United States, Putin announced last week that he would send his prime minister, ex-President Dmitry Medvedev, in his stead. This would give Putin time to finalize the selection of a new Cabinet (a procedure that is usually carried out by the prime minister), the Kremlin argued.

But while Putin may have succeeded in his aim of brushing off the West, the main loser of his decision not to attend, analysts say, may end up being Russia itself.

For a start, Putin will miss out on being part of discussions on subjects that are of huge importance to Russia’s future wellbeing and stability: the escalating sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, whether Europe will abandon austerity measures, and if a global recession will send the oil price plunging. (See Article, page 6.)

While big decisions are not usually hammered out at G8 summits, the severity of the crisis, coupled with the proximity of the U.S. presidential elections in November, may make this year’s summit an exception.

Obama, whose re-election is likely to depend on the strength of the U.S. economy, may well use the event try to bounce his disjointed European partners into some kind of action to stimulate economic growth.

The subject is equally important for Russia, which relies on the European Union to buy its main source of budget revenue – oil and gas exports.

Even with Putin at the summit, Russia, which has been considered by some Western governments as a junior partner in the G8, would probably not have been able to yield much influence. But with Medvedev there instead, its views are likely to be ignored

Obama had planned a wide program of bilateral talks with Putin, with whom he has rarely had a chance to talk, but was forced to postpone them until the sidelines of the G20 meeting in June after Putin dropped out.

But far from snubbing the Western leaders, Putin may in fact have done them a favor, by sparing them the dilemma of how to relate to the Russian leader, whom many have criticized over alleged human rights abuses and election fraud.

Medvedev, who played the role of Western-leaning liberal during his four-year term as president, is far less confrontational than Putin and, in the absence of any real power to speak on behalf of the Kremlin, is likely to just sit at the back and listen.