Unit 23 Changes of population growth

1. How has world population growth changed? What have been some of the consequences of these changes?

Several hundred thousand years were needed for the world's population to reach one billion. The second billion, however, was reached by 1930, the third by 1960, the fourth by 1975, and the fifth by 1987. Population experts predict a 6.2 billion world population by the year 2000. Even so, the world's population is growing more slowly now than in the 1960s and 1970s.

The density of a population is the number of people who live in a given area; population density differs dramatically among the 50 states. Density can have dramatic effects on people's subjective experiences of life.

In 1798, Thomas Malthus suggested that no population can continue to grow indefinitely be­cause population increases geometrically, while food supplies increase only arithmetically. Hence while population doubles, the food supply increases by only one unit. Malthus believed that people simply would run out of food and that the only solution was to marry late and to have fewer children. The evidence, however, has not supported his thesis. Malthus failed to anticipate the full possibilities of the Industrial Revolution and did not foresee the technological revolution in agricul­ture. Marx saw the situation differently: whereas Malthus placed the blame for overpopulation and poverty on the individual members of society, Marx saw the issue in terms of underproduction. The unequal distribution of social wealth under capitalism made it seem that a " natural" limit on popula­tion was necessary. Marx suggested socialism as a solution to the problem of overpopulation.

Sociologists describe three stages in the development of the population structure; all three reflect the demographic transition. Both the birthrate and the death rate are high and stable in Stage One. Stage Two is a transitional stage, with a continued high birthrate but a declining death rate. This stage has the potential for a high rate of population growth. In Stage Three both the birthrate and the death rate are low and are in balance again. The significant increase in the chances for infant survival allows people to have fewer children. The demographic transition reflects past events in industrialised nations; it also is an indication of what might happen elsewhere.

As death rates in developing countries decline, the population should grow significantly because fertility rates remain high. In many countries, however, the falling death rate is not accompanied by a shift to an industrial economy. Hence such countries will continue to experience a need for many children. In short, the demographic transition that occurred in the industrialised countries of the West does not apply directly to many currently developing nations. People in these societies have not yet had the time to adjust the religious and cultural values that shape the birthrate.

The world is dividing sharply into regions where the population is growing slowly (1 percent) and where it is growing rapidly (2.2 percent or more). These growth rates have an enormous long-term impact on population because population growth is exponential. That is, the increase is based not on the original figure but on the doubling and redoubling of the population within a given amount of time.

Population growth has significant implications for the food supply and for living standards. Nearly half of the world's population is undernourished to the point of low vitality and high vul­nerability to disease; millions are near starvation. Although the world produces more than enough food to feed its population, half goes to feed animals, much is left to rot or to be eaten by pests, and much is wasted or consumed in excess. Significant advances have been made in food produc­tion, but this new agriculture imposes costs as well. For example, it requires extensive use of fertilizers, which often are made from oil. The most realistic goal for the future is to reduce popu­lation growth and to aid developing nations in becoming more self-reliant.

Living standards are bleak in most developing countries. The unemployment rate is very high, cities become large ghettos, and sanitation problems develop. As a result, education and health care are virtually nonexistent. The destruction of the environment has been an additional misfortune for developing countries.

There are conflicting perspectives regarding the direction of the world's population trends. One appraisal is pessimistic, suggesting that a continuation of current economic trends will result in declining living standards for nearly half of the world's people, primarily in Third World nations. According to this perspective, rapidly growing populations that place pressure on limited resources are bringing the world to the edge of an environmental crisis, thereby impairing the global economy. The optimistic view suggests that improved technology has increased both the quantity and the quality of life and will continue to do so.

Changes in the world population growth rate have implications for women's status. The status of women remains low in most traditional societies; whatever status women possess derives primarily from marriage and mothering. Reducing the birthrates in such societies clearly involves a dramatic change in women's roles; people will not change their patterns of childbearing until they have reasons to do so. Such reasons might include a reduction in infant mortality, the expansion of basic education, and participation in the labour force. The status of women also has been influenced significantly by the availability of contraceptives, although they are still not available for the major­ity of the world's population.

2. What are the policy implications of worldwide population changes?

Fortunately, the direst predictions of population growth are now being tempered. In fact, there is some indication of a decline in birthrates in some of the less developed countries, which have been the primary focus of concern. An opposite type of problem also has developed: a long-declin­ing birthrate and a decreased population in the technologically advanced societies of the world. Both of these types of problems are related to the value placed on children. People in nonindustri-alised nations emphasize having children to help ensure the futures of their families and their land. In industrialised societies, children are seen as an additional expense.

Some sociologists believe that the best way to curb fertility in countries where the birthrate poses a problem is simply to concentrate on economic development; decreased population growth will follow. Others argue that such countries face a far more complex set of problems, which may not respond to economic development alone. These problems occur in part because of the em­phasis placed on having many children, and in part because the poorer countries cannot develop fast enough to keep up with the population growth. Family planning and birth control are critical for the underdeveloped areas of the world. Once again, however, we note the intersection of the individual with society-wide demographics and economic change. Attempts to legislate birth control often fail because personal motivations are not considered. Resistance to family planning often is based on moral or religious grounds, which are difficult to alter. Finally, a moral issue is involved:

does the government have a right to invade people's privacy?

Efforts also have been made to increase slow population growth rates, particularly in several western and eastern European nations. These policies support the choice to have children by providing parents with free child care, liberal maternity or paternity leaves, priority in housing, and even cash incentives, but it is not clear whether such programs have had any long-term effects. The political, social, and economic implications of pronatalist policies and programs have been much debated. The arguments involve economic, policy, political, and gender role considerations.