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Looking To the Future






When a magazine for high- school students asked its readers what life would be like in twenty years, they said: Machines would be run by solar power. Buildings would rotate so they could follow the sun to take maximum advantage of its light and heat. Walls would " radiate light" and " change color with the push of a button." Food would be replaced by pills. School would be taught " by electrical impulse while we sleep." Cars would have radar. Does this sound like the year 2000? Actually, the article was written in 1958 and the question was, " What will life be like in 1978? "

The future is much too important to simply guess about, the way the high school students did, so experts are regularly asked to predict it accurately. By carefully studying the present, skilled businessmen, scientists, and politicians are supposedly able to figure out in advance what wi11 happen. But can they? One expert on cities wrote: Cities of the future would not be crowded, but would have space for farms and fields. People would travel to work in " airbuses, " large all-weather helicopters carrying up to 200 passengers. When a person left the airbus station he could drive a coin-operated car equipped with radar. The radar equipment of cars would make traffic accidents " almost unheard of." Does that sound familiar? Ifthe expert had been accurate it would, because he was writing in 1957. His subject was " The city of 1982."

If the professionals sometimes sound like high- school students, it's

probably because future study is still a new field. But economic forecasting, or predicting what the economy will do, has been around for a long time. It should be accurate, and generally it is. But there have been some big mistakes in this field, too. In early 1929, most forecasters saw an excellent future for the stock market. In October of that year, the stock market had its worst losses ever, ruining thousands of investors who had put their faith in financial foreseers.

One forecaster knew that predictions about the future would always be subject to a significant error factor. In 1957, H. J. Rand of the Rand Corporation was asked about the year 2000. " Only one thing is certain, " he answered. " Children born today will have reached the age of 43."

 

 

87. What happened to the investors who had put their faith in financial foreseers?

A) they survived

B) they became insane

C) they put their money into another stock

D) they murdered their foreseers

E) their investments were ruined

 


 

 

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88. How many passengers these airbuses would carry?

A) 100 passengers

B) 200 passengers

C) 20 passengers

D) 120 passengers

E) 220 passengers

 

89. According to the text of forecasting should be accurate in

A) historical ·

B) art

C) political

D) biological

E) economic

 

90. What was the subject of expert's article?

A) The city of radars

B) The future cars

C) The future of the cities

D) The city of 1982

E) The city of 1992

 

91. What did the expert on cities predict for cities in 1982?

A) People would travel to work in " airbuses"

B) People would travel to work in " waterbuses"

C) People would travel to work in " jets"

D) People would travel to work in " balloons"

E) People would travel to work in " airhorses".

 

92. Why do people ask experts to make predictions?

A) the future is very important.·

B) the future is bad

C) the future is excellent

D) they used to ask about their future

E) experts are in fashion

 

93. en did the most forecasters see an excellent future for the stock market

A) m early 1928

B) in early 1926

C) in early 1929

D) in early 1925

E) in early 1927


Text 4

Don't Look Back

An American philosopher said, " If a man can make a better mousetrap, the world will make a beaten path to his door." Business people know that " a beaten path to the door" means profits, and they devote much of their company's resources to developing new products and improving old ones.

One product that has survived more than a hundred years of being improved, but would still be recognized by its inventor, is the typewriter. The typewriter was adopted for office use around 1874 as a writing machine for the blind. At first, it only had capital letters, but five years later someone figured out how to add lowercase as well. Typewriters became electric in 1935. Thirty years later IBM produced a model with the biggest physical change to date: the old moving carriage was replaced by an interchangeable font that made the machine much more versatile. The result of these improvements is a better product, suited to the demands of a modem user.

The unending search for something better isn't always productive, thou. After many years of research, scientists at a chemical company succeeded n synthesizing a shoe material that was superior to leather. Corfam beat leather m every way: it was easier to work with, cheaper, easier to clean, and waterproof Thousands of Corfam shoes were put on the market. Then came the bad news. Corfam didn't " breather, " like leather, so the shoes weren't comfortable at all and didn't wear well.

Some products have been over-improved. The lawnmower was a simple machine that cut the grass when it was pushed by hand. It sold very well. hen came the " lazy man's mower" that was essentially like the old one, but th a motor. It sold too. The power lawnmower grew until it was big enough to sit on and drive like a tractor. Then in 1971, a man patented a power mower that drove itself, cut grass, went into the garage, and shut itself off. No one was _interested. For whatever reasons the self- driving lawnmower is still on the drawmg board.

With discouragig developments like these, hy kee? improving_ pr? ucts_? Because the competition does. As another Amencan philosopher said, Don t look back. Something might be gaining on you."

 

 

94. What was the philosopher's nationality

A) Armenian

B) Argentinean

C) Austrian

D) American

E) Australian


 

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95. What was the end of his saying?

A) " Something bring you a fortune"

B) " Something might be interesting"

C) " Something might be gaining on you"

D) " Something might be supporting you"

E) " Something might be improved"


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96. What was the difference between a simple machine and the " lazy man's mower"

A) it had two wings

B) it had two motors

C) it had two brakes

D) it had five gears

E) it had a motor

 

97. What is the most important reason for developing new products

A) demands

B) competition

C) fashion

D) high salary

E) the Nobel Prize

 

98. When was over-improved lawnmower patented?

A) in 1971

B) in 1941

C) in 1981

D) in 1961

E) in 1951

99. Who said not to look back?

A) President Washington

B) Aristotle

C) Senator Kennedy

D) Bob Dylan

E) another philosopher

100. What was the primary purpose of typewriters?

A) a writing machine for the deaf

B) a writing machine for clerks

C) a writing machine for the mute

D) a writing machine for businessmen

E) a writing machine for the blind

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1. What does the speaker say about the judges in the competition?

A) Every judge is very experienced in judging.

B) Only one of them has had some experience in judging.

C) No one of them have had any experience in judging.

D) Only three of them have had some experience in judging.

E) Most of them have had some experience in judging.

 

2. The winner in each competition will

A) be awarded a cash prize

B) receive nothing

C) be given vouchers

D) receive book-tokens

E) be given a medal

 

3. The oldest of the mini-marathon applicants is

A) 60

B) 80

C) 63

D) 66

E) 16

 

4. They are preparing to celebrate the....:...... anniversary of the town.

A) 205th

B) 215th

C) 250th

D) 200th

E) 25th

 

5. The left-over food will be taken away by

A) the fourth team

B) the judges

C) the guests

D) the second team

E) the organizers


 


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